Rolex 2024 predictions
Some of the most intriguing discussions within the watch community are centered around the topic of what new Rolex watches are going to be released in the upcoming year. The year 2024 is no different. In fact 2024 has some of the highest expectations because Rolex has amped up their creative changes in recent years. In the past they were known to have lack-luster launches, only makes very minor tweaks here or there. What we have seen recently is Rolex using new materials, making big changes to collections, and even being more playful with colors. Before we recap what Rolex released last year, let’s set the table for this article and the purpose for it.
This will be Wrist Advisor’s 5th edition of predicting what Rolex will release in the upcoming year. Our lists contain strategic Rolex 2024 predictions but also what new watches might be released. When compiling our list, we analyzed Rolex trends and behavior that would indicate what 2024 will look like. Some of this analysis involved economics and others took into account the observable behavior the brand has exhibited. Our top 10 Rolex 2024 predictions list is meant to be big and bold. We fully understand that some of them wont come full circle but they would be entirely possible and interesting if they do.
Check out our previous Rolex predictions.
Before we dive into our Rolex 2024 predictions let’s recap what Rolex released in 2023. Last year Rolex redesigned both the Daytona and Sky Dweller collections, while at the same time introducing new gold inspired references to the GMT Master II collection and a Titanium Yacht Master. Lastly to many surprise, Rolex release a vintage inspired collection, the 1908. Having done so much in one year is considered monumental for Rolex, especially releasing a watch in a material that they have never worked with before. It leaves us room to wonder, will this be a trend or is it something we should not get used to. We will see but I like to think big so let us be optimistic that there will be more of this creativity from Rolex in 2024.
When will Rolex release their 2024 watches you may ask, well that is actually public information. Rolex will release their new 2024 watches at the Watches and Wonder Geneva event on April 9th 2024.
Ok, now it’s time for the 5th edition of Wrist Advisor’s Top 10 Rolex 2024 predictions list. To reiterate, we are hypothesizing new releases and strategic moves from Rolex based on behavioral and economic research. We do not have any inside information and this list is our opinion so let’s have fun with it. Feel free to connect with us to share any of your Rolex 2024 predictions.
1. There will be another Rolex 2024 price increase
Rolex will increase their prices in 2024 and it will most likely happen on January 1st. We can confidently predict this because we have documented Rolex price increases the last two years. Each year they have happened precisely on New Years Day. Reference the 2022 and 2023 articles to discovery in detail how much prices increased for each collection and reference.
Even though we all may not like it, a 2024 Rolex price increase is well within their rights. Demand is through the roof and the quality of their product is top notch. And let’s be honest, the guy who can afford a $10,000 watch can also afford a $10,500 watch. Over longer periods of time, price increases definitely make it more difficult to acquire Rolex but it also aids current Rolex owners, helping them maintain the value of their current watches.
2. A 2024 discontinued Rolex will be an icon
As of right now, the best unkept secret from Rolex is that they hare having production issues with color red in the GMT Master II Pepsi bezel. Considering how methodical the brand is and how much thought goes into production efficiency, it would not surprise us if the Pepsi 126710BLRO was discontinued in 2024. The Rolex GMT Master II Pepsi has been an icon over many decades and many would be sad to see it out of production but don’t fear. Rolex has brought it back before, there is no doubt that they will bring it back again when it’s ready. Who knows, we may even get the Coke version (black and red bezel) in 2024 to replace it.
3. Increased Rolex production in 2024 will be observable to collectors
It has been talked about for a couple years now. First it started with a rumor that Rolex was going to invest in more factories. Then that rumor turned into fact and it was announced Rolex was increasing production. Things take time but we believe that 2024 will be the year that consumers will finally see the effects of an increase in watches made from Rolex. Signals that would indicate this are the following; actually seeing watches for sale in the case at authorized dealers, hot models being held in “the safe” again, shorter Rolex waitlists, and the secondary market prices declining rapidly.
4. 2024 Used Rolex Prices will continue to decline on the grey market
The price of Rolex watches is expected to decline in 2024. The two largest signals that indicate this downward trend will continue is Rolex has increased the supply of their watches and flippers are leaving the industry.
As Rolex continues to increase the supply of their watches, there will be less scarcity. The result of this will be that grey market dealers will not be able to sell watches that were previously hard to get at a higher premium. Since grey market dealers won’t be able to sell Rolex watches at a higher premium, they will not be able to buy their inventory for as much as they have been. This trickle down effect will hurt the flippers, people buying Rolex watches at retail only to immediately sell them for a profit to pre-owned dealers. With flippers quickly leaving the market, this will increase the availability for collectors to buy at retail. That will have a compound effect on the price of pre-owned watches in 2024 considering Rolex already has increased initial supply.
5. In 2024 Rolex will revive a vintage classic
This past year we witnessed Rolex introduce the 1908 (a vintage reissue) and a solid gold Daytona that looks very similar to the vintage Paul Newman reference. An obvious 2024 Rolex prediction is that Rolex will continue to release vintage inspired watches from the past. A specific model that is prime for reintroduction would be their Perpetual Calendar Moonphase. There are very few of the vintage originals circulating on the pre-owned market but when they become available at auction, they command price tags well into the six figure range.
6. Rose gold will be introduced to the Submariner collection
If we had a genie and hypothetically had one wish for our 2024 Rolex predictions to come true, it would be to have two tone and solid rose gold Submariners. Rolex is well known for their warm Everose gold material and we believe the Submariner collection is primed to accept it. With the adoption of rose gold, many new dial and bezel color combinations could be used in the new Submariners. For years the Submariner collection just floats around with how they use green but not much else. Rose gold will spice this collection up and give many collectors a whole new array of watches to collect.
If I had to pick new color combinations for an Everose Submariner it would be the following.
- Deep navy blue dial & bezel
- White dial & deep navy blue bezel
- Sundust dial & bezel
- White dial & sundust bezel
- Sundust dial & chocolate bezel
7. Rolex will recapture the Oyster Perpetual dial craze in 2024
Back in 2020 Rolex lit the world on fire with the release of a full pallet of vibrant colors for their Oyster Perpetual collection. At the time Oyster Perpetual watches were readily available and seen as starter Rolex watches. Once Rolex released them with bright colorful dials, they instantly became some of the hardest watches to acquire and were selling for twice as much on the pre-owned market.
Since then Rolex has discontinued about half of the colors and the demand for the Oyster Perpetual is sliding back to what it once was. I would not doubt if Rolex recognized that the OP lineup is their chance to be daring, fun, and give collectors something to get excited about. That might be the brand for the OP moving forward. With that being said, it is entirely possible that Rolex will reignite the OP dial craze with some new dial variations this year. If we had to guess, instead of fun colors Rolex will experiment with textured dials. This design strategy is catching on and has brought brands like Grand Seiko to the forefront of the watch collecting community.
8. The Sea-Dweller will get a chronograph reference
Out of all our Rolex 2024 predictions, this is by far the boldest. If Rolex wanted to make a splash and turn the Sea-Dweller into one of the hottest collections, it could introduce the second chronograph from the brand in a 45mm case design. Having a second chronograph from Rolex, outside of the Daytona, isn’t inconceivable. As manufacturing has increased, it would make sense to produce more chronograph movements when considering economies of scale. Outside of the perpetual calendar in the Sky Dweller collection, the chronograph movement is the only one that isn’t shared with any other collection.
This may or may not play a part in it but recently Omega and Rolex have been in a heated match creating the most extreme dive watches, the Ultra Deep and the Deepsea Challenger. It wouldn’t shock me if Rolex fitted the Sea Dweller with a chronograph to chip away at some of the Omega Planet Ocean marketshare.
9. A 37mm Rolex Submariner will be released
Rolex and their sister company, Tudor, share a lot of the same DNA. Historically it is Tudor that is following in Rolex foot steps but this year we predict it will be the exact opposite. Last year Tudor released a 37mm Black Bay Diver. That was a risky move and could have been a complete flop but to much excitement, it was a huge success. A 37mm dive watch was the star of the show at Watches & Wonders Geneva.
A surprising but exciting 2024 Rolex prediction is that Rolex will release a 37mm Submariner. This makes sense because smaller watches are becoming a trend and a 37mm Submariner will be appealing to men with smaller wrists or women who want to get into the collection.
10. Accurate 2024 Rolex leaks
Over the years, usually a couple days before Rolex releases their new watches at Watches & Wonders. Screenshots start to circulate the forums, leaking pictures of the new watches Rolex will release. Many speculate the leaks are coming from Rolex authorized dealers or insiders within the organization. Regardless of where they come from, they take away from the magic at the launch event. We fully expect more Rolex leaks in 2024 so if you want to be surprised at Watches & Wonders, we suggest staying off the forums the week before the event.